Computational Psychiatry
● Ubiquity Press, Ltd.
Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Computational Psychiatry's content profile, based on 12 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Wang, J.; Babu, A. S.; Nguyen, B.; Contreras, Y. M.; Shah, P.; Ramirez, I. C.; Green, T. A.
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Despite its strong link to neuropsychiatric conditions, frustration remains critically understudied in humans and animals alike. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop tools to understand and therapeutically target frustration-related functions. Interestingly, humans and rats respond similarly during frustrative nonreward by increasing barpress durations. We previously validated barpress duration in rat operant tasks as a reliable measure of frustration-related behavior; however, it is wellknown that in addition to duration of responding, emotional states such as frustration alter other aspects of responding such as force of pressing. One-dimensional, static measures such as maximum force could miss rich information contained within operant data. Thus, the objective of this study is to apply machine learning (ML) to force/time profiles to discriminate frustration-related barpresses from non-frustration-related barpresses. Results showed an AUROC for FR1 (i.e., non-frustrated) vs. extinction (frustrated condition) for individual barpresses of 0.65 that improved to 0.84 with a chunk size of 10. The model generalized well to progressive ratio responding, a different kind of frustration procedure. We conclude that force/time profiling does provide utility beyond one dimensional measures of duration or force separately, meaning that we can indeed infer the internal state of frustration from behavior using ML techniques. Importantly, this project will also serve as proof-of-concept for applying ML to predict other internal states from barpress data.
Rajput, D.; Felmingham, K.; Sophie Lin, C.-H.; Garrido, M.
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BACKGROUND: An individual's adaptation to threatening environments under uncertainty is reflected in stress responses. Predictability (the ability to anticipate events) and controllability (the ability to control outcomes) are central to how one adapts, yet their joint influence on aversive learning remains unclear. METHODS: Thirty healthy adults completed a probabilistic aversive learning task in which cue-outcome contingencies varied across levels of predictability and controllability, i.e. whether shock intensity depended on prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy, reaction time, subjective stress ratings, and skin conductance responses were recorded throughout. Trial-wise learning dynamics were estimated using the Volatile Kalman Filter. RESULTS: Prediction accuracy reduced as environments became less predictable and negatively associated with higher learning rates across predictability levels, with the strongest relationship observed in highly predictable blocks. Skin conductance responses showed that moderately predictable environments elicited responses like those in highly predictable environments when accurate predictions reduced shock intensity, but resembled responses in unpredictable environments when shock intensity was uncontrollable. Model comparison revealed a double dissociation between subjective stress ratings and skin conductance responses. Subjective ratings were best explained by model-derived volatility when prediction accuracy determined shock intensity and by belief uncertainty when it was independent of prediction accuracy, whereas skin conductance responses showed the reverse pattern. Reaction times were best explained by belief uncertainty when predictions influenced shock intensity. Higher anxiety was associated with elevated learning rates in highly and moderately predictable blocks when predictions did not control shock intensity.
Quigley, H.; Gardiner, B.; McDaid, L.; O'Donnell, C.
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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a heterogeneous neurodevelopmental condition defined by differences in social communication and restricted, repetitive behaviours. As diagnostic criteria have broadened, ASD is now recognised across a wider range of individuals, raising key questions about its structure: does ASD have discrete sub-types, or is it better conceptualised as a continuous, possibly multidimensional, condition? We aim to explore whether a multidimensional continuum model more accurately captures the variability within ASD. We analysed a large SPARK phenotypic dataset of medical history and diagnostic surveys (background history, SCQ, RBS-R; n=36,710 individuals). We apply and compare two traditional statistical approaches, Factor Analysis and Gaussian Mixture Models, with a modern machine learning technique, the Variational Autoencoder (VAE). VAEs reconstructed unseen test data with ~4-fold better accuracy than Factor Analysis, and ~8-fold better accuracy than Gaussian Mixture Models. We identified four stable latent factors across 100 independently trained VAEs. These four dimensions provide an individual behavioural profile that can be visualized using radar-plots, offering a compact way to compare profiles at the person level. Through further analysis, we found evidence for 3 overlapping clusters or subtypes of ASD identified within the 4D latent space. This work aims to inform new ways of modelling ASD using a VAE that will be able to discern between a continuum or a clustered output and that go beyond binary diagnosis, instead reflecting the complex range of trait profiles, with implications for personalised diagnosis and intervention.
Lewis, G.; Freemantle, N.; Dehbi, H.-M.; Clarke, C.; Bordea, E.
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This document describes the Statistical Analysis Plan (SAP) for PETRA, a randomised controlled trial in people with generalised anxiety disorder comparing pregabalin plus an antidepressant and standard care, with placebo plus an antidepressant and standard care, with respect to the primary outcome of the GAD-7 score at week 12.
Chen, Y.; Puckett, H.; Clarot, G.; Hawkins, B.; Sharp, K.; Todd, D. A.; Lopez, A.; Bertollo, J. R.; Behar, H. E.; Zeithamova, D.; Xie, H.; Verbalis, A.; VanMeter, A. S.; Gaillard, W. D.; Kenworthy, L.; Vaidya, C. J.
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Generalization is a key cognitive process that allows humans to flexibly apply prior knowledge to guide new behaviors. Difficulties with generalization and flexibility are observed across neurodevelopmental disorders, especially autism, limiting adaptive function and quality of life. Cognitive-behavioral treatment benefits some but not all autistic individuals. As treatment requires application of learned skills to everyday life, variability in generalization ability may limit intervention success in autism. While cognitive substrates of learning and generalization are well established, their potential for explaining clinical outcomes is not known. Here, we combined a category learning task with computational modelling to distinguish two learning strategies underlying generalization -- prototype abstraction vs. exemplar memorization -- and tested whether individual differences in these learning strategies predicted real-world intervention outcomes in autistic youth. Fifty-four participants completed the category learning task at two pre-intervention timepoints, and then completed Unstuck and On Target:14-22 intervention targeting flexible problem solving, goal setting, and planning. We found that participants who consistently relied on prototype abstraction (N=26) were subsequently more likely to benefit from the intervention, showing improvement in parent- and self-reported flexibility. These findings identify prototype abstraction as a clinically relevant cognitive capacity that may help explain individual differences in intervention response and support the tailoring of interventions. More broadly, they demonstrate the value of linking basic cognitive mechanisms to clinical outcomes and may inform strategies to enhance the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral interventions for youth with developmental disabilities.
Rohd, S. B.; Thorup, A. A.; Wilms, M.; Schiavon, M.; Streyma, D. H. B.; Laursen, A. F.; Bundgaard, A. F.; Sondergaard, A.; Krantz, M. F.; Veddum, L.; Hjorthoj, C.; Greve, A.; Mors, O.; Nordentoft, M.; Hemager, N.; Gregersen, M.
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Objective: This study examined the prevalence of psychotic experiences (PE) and how early onset and persistence of PE contribute to risk and severity of mental disorders in adolescents at familial high-risk of schizophrenia (FHR-SZ) or bipolar disorder (FHR-BP) and adolescents from a population-based control group (PBC). Methods: This is the second follow-up of a nationwide cohort study including 522 children at FHR-SZ (N=202), FHR-BP (N=120), and PBC (N=200). Participants were assessed at ages 7, 11, and 15 using a semi-structured interview to evaluate PE and mental disorders. Results: At age 15, adolescents at FHR-SZ reported more PE than PBC over the past six months (current) and the past four years, while adolescents at FHR-BP only reported more current PE. PE reported at two or three timepoints (persistent PE) predicted any Axis I disorder in mid-adolescence, corresponding to three- (OR 2.9, 95% CI [1.5-5.7]) and 21-fold (OR 21.4, 95% CI [2.8-162.3]) increased risks, respectively. Persistent PE also predicted multimorbidity, with three- (OR 2.8, 95% CI [1.0-7.6]) and four-fold (OR 4.1, 95% CI [1.2-14.1]) increased risks, respectively. This was after adjustment for sex, early mental disorders, and familial risk. Conclusions: This study demonstrates a strong link between persistent PE and mid-adolescence mental disorders. Our findings emphasize PE as important risk markers for mental disorders during mid-adolescence and highlight the importance of monitoring children with PE before age 7 who develop persistent symptoms.
Mignondje, K. A.; Connolly, J. G.; Beermann, A.; Crabtree, E.; Vandekar, S.; Roeske, M. J.; Biernacki, K.; Coleman, M. J.; Shenton, M. E.; Brady, R. O.; Lewandowski, K. E.; Ward, H. B.
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Background: Cognitive impairment is the leading cause of disability in schizophrenia with limited treatments. A major barrier to treatment development is the absence of reproducible, mechanistically grounded neural targets. Cross-sectional studies have identified dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC)-somatomotor connectivity as a neural marker of cognitive performance on the Auditory Continuous performance task (ACPT), a measure of attention. To test the stability of this marker, we tested the relationship between DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity and ACPT performance in a longitudinal psychosis sample. Methods: Individuals with early psychosis (n=251) and matched controls (n=90) were enrolled and underwent resting-state neuroimaging and neurocognitive assessment. A subset completed longitudinal assessments over 2-4 years. We calculated DMPFC-somatomotor resting-state functional connectivity using a previously identified DMPFC region and a seed in the somatomotor cortex. We performed linear mixed effects models to predict ACPT performance based on connectivity, time, psychosis type, and their interaction. Results: In the psychosis sample, time (p=.0037) and affective psychosis diagnosis (p<.0001) predicted better ACPT performance. In a model predicting ACPT performance, we observed a significant interaction effect of DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity*psychosis subtype (p=.0079) such that DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity predicted ACPT performance only in individuals with non-affective psychosis (p=.0051). We then tested the specificity of this connectivity-cognitive performance relationship. In a model predicting DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity, only ACPT performance (p=.017), but not fluid cognition, was a significant predictor. Conclusions: DMPFC-somatomotor connectivity is longitudinally associated with cognitive performance in early psychosis. This relationship is strongest in nonaffective psychosis, suggesting a novel, reliable target for intervention for cognitive deficits in early psychosis.
Bastien, J.; Garcia, K.; Wallace, A. L.; Sullivan, R. M.; Hoh, E.; Wade, N. E.
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Background: As cannabis policy changes in the United States, secondhand cannabis smoke (SCS) is increasingly common, including within families. However, prevalence of exposure and clinical correlates over time in adolescents are not fully understood. Objectives: (1) To estimate the prevalence of SCS and personal cannabis use in US-based teens exposed to SCS, and (2) examine the cognitive trajectories of adolescents exposed to SCS compared to non-exposed peers. Methods: Data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study was used. Participants (n=11,316 of full cohort with follow-up data; n=776 with self-reported family SCS exposure) attended yearly visits from ages 11-17, completing substance use interviews, toxicological testing, and the NIH Toolbox Cognitive battery. Youth with SCS but no personal cannabis use (n=419; 47% female) were matched on prenatal substance exposure, family substance use history, and sociodemographics to non-SCS exposed and non-cannabis-using youth with a 1:2 ratio (Controls n=838). Linear mixed-effects models assessed cognitive performance by SCS*age interactions, accounting for random effects of subject and family. Covariates included sex and alcohol, nicotine, and other substance use. Secondary models analyzed performance by cumulative waves of reported SCS exposure interacting with age. Results: Of the full cohort, 6.9% (n=776) reported exposure to SCS. Of these individuals, 46% endorsed lifetime personal cannabis use by age 17, relative to 20% of non-SCS exposed youth (OR=3.83[95%CI:3.29,4.44]). Within matched participants, SCS*age demonstrated a significant interaction on attention and inhibitory control ({beta}=-0.32, p=.028), with SCS demonstrating reduced improvement over time. More waves of exposure were also associated with worse performance over time ({beta}=-0.39, p=.057). Discussion: Almost half of those who had been exposed to SCS endorsed personal cannabis use. Cognitive findings were domain specific, similar to findings in secondhand tobacco: SCS exposed youth showed restricted improvement in attention and inhibitory control by age 17. Public health and policymakers should make efforts to curb youth SCS exposure, given the potential for risk which has not been fully explored to date.
Ehlers, M. R.; Stiffel, H.; Kastrinogiannis, A.; Koppold, A.; Lonsdorf, T. B.
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Anxiety-related traits (ARTs) have been linked to altered fear learning, but previous studies have typically examined different experimental phases and response systems, limiting the comparability of findings and the accumulation of consistent evidence. Here, we comprehensively examined associations between ARTs and fear conditioning across acquisition, extinction and renewal and across subjective, physiological and neural response systems in a well-powered sample (N = 267) using a two-day differential conditioning paradigm. ARTs were operationalized as a composite of trait anxiety, neuroticism, and intolerance of uncertainty and conditioned responding was assessed using skin conductance responses, fear-potentiated startle, US expectancy ratings, fear ratings, and functional magnetic resonance imaging. Higher ARTs were consistently associated with elevated subjective fear and US expectancy to both threat and safety cues during extinction and renewal, without corresponding elevations in physiological responding. At the same time, ARTs were not associated with threat-safety discrimination in subjective or physiological measures across phases, while neural associations were limited to reduced dorsal anterior cingulate cortex discrimination during early renewal. These findings suggest that ARTs are characterized by a CS unspecific cognitive bias toward heightened threat expectancy and evaluation rather than altered associative fear learning, highlighting the importance of distinguishing conditioned discrimination from general levels of responding across response systems.
Chen, P.-H.; Duncan, N. W.; Lee, H.-c.; Liu, Y.-J.; Hsu, T.-Y.
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Background: Bipolar disorder is associated with persistent social, cognitive, and functional impairment during euthymia, yet the neural mechanisms underlying these deficits remain unclear. Alterations to self-referential processing are a candidate mechanism, but existing electrophysiological studies rely on emotionally valenced paradigms that potentially confound self-processing with emotional biases. Methods: We analysed electroencephalography from 28 patients with bipolar disorder (type I or II) and 28 age- and sex-matched healthy controls during an emotionally neutral colour judgment task with self-related (preference) and non-self-related (similarity) conditions. Late positive potentials, temporal generalisation decoding, and frequency band decoding (theta, alpha, beta) were used to characterise the temporal dynamics and oscillatory correlates of self versus non-self processing. Results: Controls showed higher overall event-related potential amplitudes and greater self versus non-self differentiation than patients (condition by group interaction, 337 to 946 ms). Broadband temporal generalisation decoding revealed extensive cross-temporal generalisation of the self versus non-self representation in controls, spanning most of the trial, but no significant generalisation in patients. Frequency analyses showed that alpha and beta carried self versus non-self information in both groups, with broader extent in controls, and that anterior theta carried this information in patients but not controls. Exploratory correlations linked decoding measures to rumination and anxiety but not to manic symptoms. Conclusions: The neural representation distinguishing self-referential from externally guided processing was both smaller in amplitude and less temporally sustained in bipolar disorder. Reduced persistence is not detectable by conventional amplitude analyses, and may bear on the self-related and social cognitive difficulties reported in this population.
Chesley, J.; Biernacki, K.; Vanleuven, J.; Doran, J. P.; Yazgan, I.; Yildiz, G.; Gonzalez, D. A.; Wagner, S. Y.; LeBaron, K.; Marrero, E.; Osama, T.; Vandekar, S.; Ward, H. B.
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Background: Substance use is common among individuals with depression. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is an effective treatment for depression, but current clinical guidelines have discouraged TMS treatment for individuals with depression and co-occurring substance use given concerns for limited efficacy. However, limited data exists on whether substance use affects response to TMS. Methods: Using electronic health record data from patients who received a standard course of TMS for major depressive disorder at an academic medical center, we investigated associations between substance use frequency and response to TMS, defined as change in Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores. Substance use frequency was extracted for alcohol, cannabis, nicotine, stimulants, benzodiazepines, opioids, inhalants, psychedelics, and other drugs. We performed ANCOVA and multiple regression analyses to predict change in PHQ-9 score based on substance use frequency, controlling for pre-TMS PHQ-9 score, age, sex, and number of TMS sessions received. Results: We extracted data from 219 TMS courses. Alcohol was the substance used most commonly (34.2%), followed by prescription benzodiazepines (28.3%), and prescription stimulants (21.0%). Across all substance categories, substance use was not associated with change in PHQ-9 score (all p > 0.05, Cohens d=0.00 to 0.30). In multiple regression models to compare individual levels of substance use frequency (e.g., daily use vs. no use), level of substance use was not associated with change in PHQ-9 score (all p > 0.05). The range of plausible effects of substance use frequency on PHQ-9 change was generally below the minimal clinically important difference for PHQ-9, suggesting substance use was unlikely to have a meaningful clinical effect on antidepressant response to TMS. Conclusions: Low to moderate substance use does not have a clinically significant effect on antidepressant response to TMS. Low-level substance use should not exclude individuals with depression from receiving TMS.
Suokas, K.; Gutvilig, M.; Komulainen, K.; Alho, J.; McGrath, J. J.; Pirkola, S.; Lumme, S.; Elovainio, M.; Hakulinen, C.
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Importance: Excess mortality associated with mental disorders is well established, but estimates are largely based on specialist psychiatric populations. Whether they characterize mortality in the broader diagnosed population is uncertain. Objective: To characterize heterogeneity in excess mortality by diagnosis, psychiatric care setting, substance use disorder (SUD), and time since diagnosis. Design: Nationwide population-based cohort study with follow-up from January 1, 2011, through December 31, 2023. Setting: Primary and specialist health care and population registers in Finland. Participants: Residents aged 5 to 95 years without a recorded prevalent mental disorder at cohort entry. Exposures: Mental, behavioural, and neurodevelopmental disorders classified using ICD-11, with time-varying psychiatric care setting and SUD status. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality, mortality rate ratios (MRRs), and 10-year differences in restricted mean survival time (RMST). Results: Among 5,526,599 individuals (2,784,897 [50.4%] women), 1,463,064 (26.5%) received a mental disorder diagnosis. Excess mortality varied substantially by diagnosis, clinical subgroup, and time since diagnosis. Among those aged 5 to 64 years with any mental disorder, adjusted MRRs across care setting and SUD strata ranged from 1.54 (95% CI, 1.39-1.71) to 8.97 (7.86-10.24). MRRs were highest immediately after first diagnosis and declined during the first 2 to 3 years. At 3 years, MRRs for depressive, anxiety or fear-related, and stress-related disorders among individuals without SUD treated outside specialist psychiatric care ranged from 0.88 (0.79-0.98) to 1.20 (1.12-1.29) in men and from 0.81 (0.73-0.89) to 1.13 (1.04-1.22) in women, whereas MRRs for schizophrenia and other primary psychotic disorders remained 1.84 (1.60-2.12) in men and 1.55 (1.37-1.75) in women. Ten-year survival loss across all mental disorders was 0.53 years (95% CI, 0.53-0.54) in men and 0.34 years (0.33-0.34) in women and was greater for natural than external causes. Conclusions and Relevance: Excess mortality varied markedly by diagnosis, clinical context, and time since diagnosis and was small in some common disorders outside specialist psychiatric care without SUD. Estimates derived from specialist psychiatric populations or averaged across follow-up may therefore provide an incomplete picture of mortality in the broader diagnosed population.
Albukai, M.; Lovell, A.; Jones, B.; Patel, K.
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Background Gambling harm is a significant public health concern that is systematically under-recognised in clinical practice. Despite the recent inclusion of gambling disorder in the General Medical Council's Medical Licensing Assessment content map, gambling harm has been largely absent from undergraduate medical education in the United Kingdom, and structured evaluations of gambling harm teaching delivered to medical students have not, to our knowledge, been reported. Methods A single-group, pre-post study of a teaching session on gambling harm was conducted across three sequential cohorts of Year 4 medical students at King's College London during the 2025-2026 academic year. Outcome measures were collected immediately after the teaching with no follow-up. The session was delivered online by Gambling Harm UK, a registered UK charity, and comprised lived experience testimony and teaching with public health and clinical components. Self-reported confidence across six domains was assessed pre- and post-session on a five-point scale, alongside nine post-session attitudinal statements. Paired confidence data were analysed using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test with Hodges-Lehmann estimates of the median paired difference, with a Bonferroni-corrected significance threshold of p < 0.008 applied within each cohort. Results Sixty-eight paired responses were analysed (completion rates of 28%, 24%, and 32%). Statistically significant improvements in self-reported confidence were observed across all six domains in each cohort. Median confidence rose from 'slightly confident' before the session to 'quite confident' afterwards, with median paired improvements of 1.5 to 2.5 points (all p [≤] 0.001). Post-session attitudinal responses were positive across all nine items, with lived experience the most strongly endorsed. Conclusions A single online teaching session on gambling harm was associated with significant and consistent improvements in self-reported confidence in recognising and responding to gambling harm across three cohorts of medical students. Whether these gains translate into changes in clinical behaviour requires longer-term, multi-site evaluation with behavioural outcome measures. Medical schools should consider how gambling harm teaching might fit within their curricula and evaluate its introduction, with the aim of normalising asking about gambling in routine social history taking alongside alcohol and smoking.
Knol, L.; Nagpal, A.; Hussain, F.; Beckmann, C. F.; Leow, A.; Eisenlohr-Moul, T. A.; Marquand, A. F.
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Digital phenotyping, which is defined as quantifying someone's behaviour with digital devices, provides unprecedented opportunities for understanding human mental health but is hampered by high levels of inter-individual variability. Here, we propose a new method to address this, parsing inter-individual variability by decomposing the digital phenotype dynamics into latent trajectories and using each individual's trajectory membership as a moderator when modelling psychopathology over the same timeframe. We applied our method in the context of mood symptom exacerbation across the menstrual cycle, where symptom severity and timing are inconsistent between individuals. Using the BiAffect platform to collect smartphone typing dynamics, we found stable trajectories in smartphone movement rate: one group of participants showed substantial movement rate fluctuations across the menstrual cycle, whilst the others did not. Participants with movement fluctuations displayed increased fluctuations across the cycle in prospective anhedonia and depression ratings, but not in anxiety, irritability, and suicidal ideation.
Sörnyei, D.; Kovacs, F. M.; Benedek, T.; Ori, D.; Farkas, K.
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The Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ-50) is widely used to assess autistic traits, yet its Hungarian version has not been psychometrically evaluated. We assessed the reliability, factor structure, temporal stability, convergent validity, and clinical utility of the Hungarian AQ-50 and a revised translation (AQ-50-HU-R) in two samples (N1 = 1967; N2 = 423), including autistic and non-autistic participants. The AQ-50-HU-R showed high internal consistency and test-retest reliability. A bifactor model provided the best fit ({chi}2[1125] = 1650.433, p < 0.001; CFI = 0.991; TLI = 0.990; RMSEA = 0.033 [90% CI = 0.030-0.037]; SRMR = 0.083), with 71% of common variance attributable to a general autistic traits factor. The total score distinguished clinically verified autistic participants from participants reporting no ASD diagnosis (AUC = 0.906), with a cutoff of 25. Associations with ADOS scores were weak or nonsignificant. The AQ-50-HU-R is best interpreted as a reliable total-score screening measure, supporting referral for comprehensive autism assessment.
Chaturvedi, R. R.; Gracner, T.; Perez-Arce, F.; Suen, S.-c.; Jin, J.; Orriens, B.; Pacula, R. L.; Sexton Ward, A.; Haile, R.; Kapteyn, A.
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Importance: Evidence on GLP-1/GIP therapies is largely derived from trials enrolling selected populations or medical records that miss utilization outside healthcare channels. No nationally representative cohort has characterized real-world uptake, indications, and access. Objective: To characterize GLP-1/GIP prevalence, indication, clinical profile, and access. Design: Prospective cohort study with three GLP-1/GIP surveillance waves (March 2024, December 2024, October 2025). Setting: The Understanding America Study, an address-based, nationally representative panel of approximately 15,000 US adults aged 18+ years initiated in 2014. Participants: UAS participants responding to at least one surveillance wave (n=9150). Exposures: GLP-1/GIP use status (never vs any use, comprising current and former use), self-reported primary indication (diabetes, weight loss, or other), and access pathway (traditional vs non-traditional). Main Outcomes and Measures: Survey-weighted prevalence of GLP-1/GIP use, overall and by indication and access pathway; sociodemographic, cardiometabolic, treatment, and access characteristics; and smartwatch-derived resting heart rate, heart rate variability, maximum activity heart rate, step count, and sleep duration and variability. Results: Among n=9150 adults (1274 with any use; 60.9% female; median age 53 years), weighted prevalence increased 46%, from 8.2% (March 2024) to 12.0% (October 2025) representing 32 million. Weight-loss indications grew, reaching nearly half of use (4.1% to 5.6%); diabetes-indicated use was stable (5.3% to 5.4%). Users carried high cardiometabolic burden (obesity, 68.2%; diabetes, 53.6%) but diverged by indication: diabetes-indicated users were older (median, 59 vs 49 years), whereas weight-loss-indicated users were more often female (69.9% vs 51.3%) and healthier. One in three users (~9 million) had non-traditional access, especially in weight-loss-indicated users, of whom 33% had no conventional prescription; 41% used compounding, online, or foreign pharmacies; and, 43% lacked coverage. Non-traditional users were five times as likely to report an unlisted, likely compounded formulation (19.8% vs 4.1%). All p<0.05. Conclusions and Relevance: Real-world GLP-1/GIP use has grown rapidly and diversified substantially in indication, access, and population profile. One in 3 users obtained treatment through nontraditional channels largely invisible to claims data, raising long-term safety, efficacy, and coverage questions. GLIMMER provides a public, nationally representative longitudinal evidence base for future payer and provider decisions.
ye, y.; Zeng, Z.; Tian, X.; Yuan, Z.; Wang, J.; Zhu, Y.
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Artificial intelligence applied to routine electrocardiograms (ECGs) has largely focused on detecting existing disease or predicting individual cardiovascular outcomes. Whether ECGs can support prediction of multiple future diseases across organ systems remains unclear. We developed ECG-RISK, a multitask survival model for 67 incident three-character ICD-10 endpoints using ECG waveforms, demographic characteristics and routinely collected laboratory data from 86,673 MIMIC-IV patients. Discrimination was highest for heart, brain, kidney and lung endpoints, with organ-level C-indices ranging from 0.796 to 0.825, whereas liver and pancreatic endpoints showed lower discrimination. The ECG-only model achieved strong discrimination across most endpoints, whereas the incremental improvement gained by incorporating ECG and laboratory inputs beyond demographic information varied substantially across endpoints. Across the nine exploratory aggregated outcomes, Kaplan Meier curves showed clear separation among model-score tertiles. Discrimination was highest for dementia (C-index, 0.891) and heart failure (C-index, 0.857). These findings support the feasibility of ECG-based longitudinal risk prediction across multiple diseases. External validation and competing-risk analyses are required to assess generalisability and clinical utility.
Kremer, P.; Schlicker, N.; Hasnaj, R.; Bamberger, J.; Witte, T.; Haase, I.; Mayr, A.; Schmidt, C.; Osteras, N.; Baraliakos, X.; Kuhn, S.; Krusche, M.; Knitza, J.
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Objectives To evaluate whether access to a certified large language model (LLM)-based clinical decision support system improves physician diagnostic performance in rheumatology compared with conventional diagnostic resources alone. Methods In this multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial, 82 physicians from seven hospitals in two countries were randomised 1:1 to conventional diagnostic resources plus Prof. Valmed or conventional resources alone. Participants assessed three rheumatology vignettes before and after assistance. The primary outcome was top-1 diagnostic accuracy. Secondary outcomes included top-3 accuracy, diagnostic reasoning, confidence, case-processing time and perceived support quality. Results Top-1 accuracy increased from 22.2% to 33.3% in the intervention group and from 23.3% to 35.0% in the control group, with no between-group difference in improvement (adjusted OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.45 to 2.19; p=0.979). Differences in top-3 accuracy, diagnostic reasoning and confidence were also not significant. Assisted case-processing time was substantially shorter with LLM support (94 vs 206 s; adjusted mean difference -112 s, 95% CI -141 to -83; p<0.001). Information timeliness and perceived diagnostic support quality were rated significantly higher in the intervention group. Exploratory analyses showed persistent overconfidence and substantial AI over-reliance. Conclusions Certified LLM-based diagnostic support did not improve diagnostic accuracy compared with conventional resources, but substantially reduced case-processing time and improved perceived support quality. These findings suggest potential workflow benefits while highlighting overconfidence and over-reliance as important safety considerations.
Singh, A. M.; Yeh, T.-C.; DeBoer, C.; Al-Moujahed, A.; Lin, J. B.; Smith, S. J.; Sanislo, S.; Janjua, K. A.; Lin, T.-C.; Almeida, D. R. P.; Mruthyunjaya, P.; Mahajan, V. B.
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Purpose: To evaluate the safety, procedural performance, sample recovery, and surgeon preference of an ophthalmic needle designed specifically for anterior chamber (AC) paracentesis. Methods: In this multicenter study, AC paracentesis was performed in clinic and operating-room settings using a 32-gauge x 4-mm needle with low dead space. The procedure was evaluated using a standardized physician survey. Prespecified outcomes included procedure-related adverse events (primary outcome), needle entry and handling, aspiration and sample recovery, comparative performance versus a 30-gauge needle, and physician preference for future use. Results: A total of 110 needle uses by eight surgeons were included. No ocular complications occurred, including lens or iris injury, hyphema, AC collapse, wound leak, hypotony, infection, or retinal complication, and no procedure required needle exchange or conversion to another device. Two technical events without ocular sequelae were noted, in which needle entry was partial thickness and did not reach the AC (1.8%; exact 95% CI, 0.2%-6.4%). Physicians rated needle entry, handling and sample recovery as good or excellent. Compared with a 30-gauge needle, the study needle was rated as at least comparable across all assessed domains. All surgeons rated it better or much better for intra-procedural safety and preferred it for future AC taps. Conclusions and Relevance: This short, 32-gauge low-dead-space ophthalmic needle demonstrated a favorable safety profile and was preferred over a 30-gauge needle by all surgeons. As aqueous humor liquid biopsy expands in clinical diagnostics and trials, an ophthalmic-specific needle design may help improve the consistency and safety of aqueous humor collection for molecular analysis and broader clinical use. Keywords: Anterior chamber paracentesis; Aqueous humor; Liquid biopsy; Low dead space; Ophthalmic needle
Patil, A.; Barathe, R.; Tate, D. M.; Kate, K.; Pande, S.; Gawande, N.; More, A.; Mahadik, S.; Berde, K.; Singhvi, R.
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Introduction: Polyendocrine metabolic ovarian syndrome (PMOS), formerly known as polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), is a common endocrine disorder affecting women of reproductive age. Besides reproductive and metabolic disturbances, PMOS negatively impacts psychological well-being and quality of life. Despite available treatment options, there remains a need for safe and effective therapies that improve both clinical symptoms and fertility outcomes. Aim: To compare the efficacy of VAMHA and MYRHA tablet combination therapy with standard non-hormonal therapy in restoring regular menstruation. Secondary objectives included assessment of ovulation, menstrual symptoms, polycystic ovarian morphology, hormonal and metabolic parameters, anthropometric measures, and skin manifestations. Study Design: Open-label, randomized, multicentre, prospective comparative clinical study. Methods: Seventy-one women with PMOS were randomized to Group A (n=37) or Group B (n=34). Group A received VAMHA and MYRHA tablets (2 tablets each), while Group B received Metformin 500 mg plus Myoinositol 600 mg (1 tablet), twice daily for 180 days. Data were recorded in Case Report Forms. Statistical Analysis: Continuous variables were summarized using mean and standard deviation, while categorical variables were expressed as frequencies and percentages. Appropriate statistical tests, including Chi-square, were used. A p-value [≤]0.05 was considered significant. Results: Significantly more participants in Group A achieved regular menstrual cycles than Group B (31 vs. 22; p<0.05). Ovulation occurred in 16 participants in Group A compared with 6 in Group B (p<0.05). Both groups showed significant improvement in menstrual irregularity and related symptoms. Significant reductions in Anti-Mullerian Hormone (AMH), fasting insulin, and body mass index (BMI) were observed in both groups (p<0.05). Resolution of polycystic ovarian morphology occurred in 13 participants (38.23%) in Group A and 10 (33.33%) in Group B. Both treatments were well tolerated with no major safety concerns. Conclusions: VAMHA and MYRHA combination therapy was superior to standard non-hormonal therapy in improving menstrual regularity and ovulation. It also produced favourable metabolic, hormonal, and ultrasonographic outcomes, suggesting its potential as a safe and effective option for comprehensive PMOS management and fertility enhancement.